East Sussex County Council

School Organisation Plan

2024 to 2028
CONTENTS

Executive Summary. 4

Policies and strategies 5

Excellence for All 5

Admission arrangements. 5

Small Schools Policy. 5

Childcare Sufficiency Duty. 6

East Sussex Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) Strategy 2022-25. 6

Post-16 education and training. 6

National framework. 7

The local perspective. 8

Population. 8

Pupil numbers. 9

Schools in East Sussex. 14

School organisation in East Sussex. 15

Introduction. 15

School planning areas. 15

Pupil forecasting. 15

Academies. 16

Federations. 17

Creating new places. 17

Capital funding. 18

Surplus places. 19

Reviews of provision. 19

Eastbourne. 21

Hastings 27

Lewes and surrounding area. 33

The Havens 39

Seaford. 46

Rural Lewes 51

Bexhill and surrounding area. 58

Battle. 63

Rye and surrounding area. 68

Rural Rother 73

Crowborough and surrounding area. 79

Hailsham and surrounding area. 84

Heathfield. 90

Polegate and Willingdon. 96

Stone Cross, Hankham, Pevensey and Westham.. 101

Uckfield and surrounding area. 105

Rural Wealden. 110

Special educational needs and disability (SEND) 116

Appendix 1:  Individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll 124

 

 

Executive Summary

This School Organisation Plan covers the period 2024 to 2028. It is a 4-year rolling plan updated every year.  The plan sets out how East Sussex County Council (the local authority) will meet its statutory duty to provide enough primary, secondary and special educational needs places in the right locations to meet demand.

The document contains information on:

·         the current pattern of school provision across the county

·         forecasts of future school numbers

·         our plans to meet the need for more places in areas of growth

·         our plans to address the over-supply of places in areas with falling rolls.

The need for school places fluctuates in response to population changes, new housing developments and government policy.  It can lead to rising as well as declining pupil numbers.  Increases in demand can lead to the establishment of new schools or the expansion of existing schools.  Decreases in demand can lead to a reduction in places through changes to admission arrangements or the rationalisation of provision.

The purpose of the School Organisation Plan is to share the projected demand for school places in the future.  It will set out where we should commission extra places or re-organise existing provision.  It is a contextual document, providing the framework within which proposals for change may be brought forward.  Any reviews of education provision we undertake and any recommendations for school re-organisation will, in part, be based on information contained in the plan.  For example, opening, closing, amalgamating, enlarging, or contracting of schools.

Over the plan period there will continue to be growing demand for special educational needs provision linked to the rising number of children and young people with an Education, Health, and Care Plan (EHCP).  At the same time there will be areas with a declining demand for mainstream school places as a result of the falling birth rate in the county.  Some schools will face challenges associated with falling rolls.  This can create budget pressures and impact on decisions of school leadership and organisation.

The local authority works closely with:

·         school leaders

·         governors

·         academy trusts

·         the Diocese of Chichester and the Diocese of Arundel and Brighton

·         local communities

·         local planning authorities

·         developers

to ensure there are the right number of school places in the right locations, with the aim of providing a high quality and inclusive education for all children and young people in East Sussex.  Alongside our statutory duty to ensure there are enough school places to meet demand, we are responsible for promoting a good supply of places at strong schools through planning, organising, and commissioning places in a way that raises attainment, increases diversity, encourages collaboration between schools and promotes community cohesion.  

Policies and strategies

The School Organisation Plan is one of several policies and strategies that link to wider education provision in East Sussex.  Others include:

Excellence for All

Excellence for All sets out our collective vision with partners for the education system in East Sussex:

‘…that by 2030 all children and young people in East Sussex will be a part of an excellent, inclusive, and equitable education system. This system will foster a meaningful sense of belonging from Early Years all the way to post-16 provision.
 
Our inclusive system will be driven by outstanding leadership and scaffolded by good governance. Young people and their families will feel confident, cared for and ready to reach their full potential.

The principles set out in this vision will inform the strategic plans across our partnerships, the local authority, and our education providers.  Our strong governance structures will oversee the delivery of our plans and our vision.’

Admission arrangements

All schools must have admission arrangements that explain how children will be admitted.  This includes the criteria that will be applied if there are more applications than places at the school.  Admission arrangements are determined by admissions authorities.  East Sussex County Council is the admissions authority for community schools and voluntary controlled schools.  The governing boards of voluntary aided schools, foundation trust schools, academies and free schools set the admissions criteria for their individual school(s).

Parents and carers have the right to express a preference for a school.  This is not the same as choosing the school where their child will attend.  Parents and carers in East Sussex can select up to three preferences when applying for a school place for their child.

For September 2024, the local authority was able to offer a place at a preferred school to:

·         98.4% of primary reception (Year R) applicants

·         all junior Year 3 applicants

·         93.8% of secondary Year 7 applicants.

There is more information about applying for a school place on the local authority website.

Small Schools Policy

East Sussex has a variety of schools which differ in size and location. Small primary schools, particularly in rural areas, are a key feature of the East Sussex education landscape. In 2023/24, 50 primary schools had fewer than 150 pupils on roll and were considered small schools.  26 (52%) of these are currently working as part of a federation of schools and 10% are part of academy trusts.

Small schools offer many strengths in serving their local community.  Relationships are strong, and pupils are well-known by staff and their peers. But their small size and capacity means that it can be more difficult to overcome challenges.  For example, staffing changes, falling pupil numbers and limited resources.

The Small Schools Policy is part of the local authority’s strategy to help small schools remain sustainable and at the heart of their communities.

Childcare Sufficiency Duty

The Childcare Sufficiency Duty is a statutory annual report published by the local authority.  It reports on the sufficiency of childcare and the state of the childcare market across East Sussex. We have a statutory duty to secure sufficient childcare for eligible families of children aged 0-14, or up to 18 for disabled children.

A new Childcare Sufficiency Duty report for 2025/26 will be published in early 2025.  It will take account of the expansion of the current Early Years Education entitlement funding streams being implemented from September 2024.

East Sussex Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND) Strategy 2022-25

In November 2022 a new, ambitious East Sussex SEND Strategy was launched covering the period 2022 to 2025.  This sets out the shared ambitions we aim to achieve across education, health, and social care over the next three years for children and young people with SEND.

The Strategy outlines a joint approach to service provision and commissioning by putting children and young people, and their families at the centre of decision-making.

The SEND Strategy was developed by representatives from across the local authority, health services and education providers, informed by the voices of young people, parents and carers.

Post-16 education and training

Local authorities have statutory duties to encourage, enable and assist young people to participate in education or training. Specifically, these duties are:

·      To secure sufficient suitable education and training provision for all young people in their area who are over compulsory school age but under 19 or aged 19 to 25 and for whom an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) is maintained.  This is a duty under the Education Act 1996.  To fulfil this duty, local authorities need to have a strategic overview of the provision available in their area and to identify and resolve gaps in provision.

·      To make available to all young people aged 13-19 and those up to 25 with an EHCP, support that will encourage, enable, or assist them to participate in education or training under Section 68 of the Education and Skills Act (ESA) 2008.

·      Tracking young people’s participation is a key element of these duties, as is promoting effective participation.

The post-16 provision offer should meet the requirements of increasing participation, by offering a wide range of options with clear progression routes into further or higher education or employment with training.  The post-16 offer should also reflect the local skills needs and priority sectors of East Sussex, with a curriculum plan and progression pathways which are influenced by local employers.

The local authority supports the progression of young people through:  

·         a focus on securing good quality careers advice through local East Sussex Careers Hub activities

·         embedding the Enterprise Advisors Network

·         the provision of Careers East Sussex

·         an e-prospectus and online application platform

·         a Work Experience Service for schools and

·         the commissioning of the Youth Employability Service to provide specific support for vulnerable young people who are not in education, employment or training or at risk of not being so.

National framework

For more information about the national framework within which local authorities must work in relation to education provision and school planning, please refer to the Department for Education website.

 

The local perspective

Population

The overall population in East Sussex has grown steadily, rising from 492,000 in 2001 to 556,000 in 2023 (Source: 2001 Census and ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2023).

Around three quarters of the population live in urban areas (Source: 2011 Census). The main centres of population and employment are concentrated in the southern coastal strip of the county in Eastbourne, Hastings and St Leonard’s, Bexhill, Newhaven, Seaford, and Lewes.

The picture for East Sussex as a whole is of an ageing county. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over is forecast to rise from 26% in 2021 to 29% in 2028 and 33% by 2037 (Source: 2021 Census and ESCC Policy Based Population Projections January 2024).

Births in East Sussex peaked at 5,500 in the academic year 2010/11. Since then, countywide births have fallen to below 4,300 in 2022/23. Based on historic patterns of 11-13 year cycles of peaks and troughs, it is anticipated that birth numbers will begin to recover soon, but it is not clear whether 2022/23 marks the lowest point in the cycle.

East Sussex births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Pupil numbers

Primary

The fall in countywide births is reflected in falling primary reception (Year R) intake numbers, at least until 2027/28. The local authority’s latest pupil forecasts are showing numbers recovering beyond this point. However, intake forecasts beyond 2027/28 are based on demographic projections of future births rather than actual live birth or GP registration data. Looking at previous cycles of births and Year R intakes, it is very possible that we may not see a recovery in Year R numbers until near the end of the decade and high Year R numbers across the county generally until the 2030s.

East Sussex primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  Pupil Model (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total numbers on roll in primary schools peaked in 2018/19 and are now in decline, currently leaving around 10% surplus places overall, although this margin varies from area to area. By 2028/29, surplus places are forecast to rise to 15%.

 

 

East Sussex total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  Pupil Model (January 2024) 03.07.24

Secondary

Earlier high numbers in primary schools have been reflected in rising secondary Year 7 school intakes. Year 7 numbers peaked in 2022/23, with total numbers on roll in secondary schools predicted to peak around 2026/27.

East Sussex secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  Pupil Model (January 2024) 03.07.24

Surplus places in secondary schools, currently at 12% countywide, are predicted to remain relatively steady over the period of the plan.

East Sussex total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  Pupil Model (January 2024) 03.07.24

Special Educational Needs

In 2023/24, the number of school aged children (aged 4-18) in East Sussex with an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) was 3,989.  There were also 482 young people aged 19-25 with an EHCP who need continued support to transition to adulthood.

Over the next four years, the local authority forecasts that overall numbers of school aged children with EHCPs will grow, by around 34%, to approximately 5,400.

School age children with an Education, Health and Care Plan from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC SEND Forecasting Model (July 2024)

Cross-border movement

At primary school level, across all year groups, around 400 children from the neighbouring authorities of:

·    Kent

·    West Sussex

·    Brighton and Hove

attend schools in East Sussex. Approximately 900 children from East Sussex attend schools in these same authorities.

At secondary school level, across all year groups, approximately 800 children from these neighbouring authorities attend schools in East Sussex. Around 1,400 children from East Sussex attend schools in these same authorities.  Kent Grammar schools represent a particular ‘pull factor’ for East Sussex children.

 

Schools in East Sussex

On 1 September 2024 there were 174 state funded mainstream schools and 15 special schools and alternative provisions in East Sussex. These range from local authority-maintained schools to academies and free schools. The following table provides a breakdown of the different types of school in East Sussex.

Note:

Some primary and all-through schools include nursery provision and therefore have age ranges starting at 2 or 3. 

Some all-through and secondary schools include sixth form provision and therefore have age ranges to 18.

·         There are 103 local authority-maintained schools in East Sussex and 84 academies and free schools.  Of the maintained schools, 43 are community schools, 57 are church schools and three are foundation schools.

·         Of the 84 academies, 81 are part of a multi-academy trust (MAT) while three are single academy trusts (SATs).

·         Of the 57 local authority-maintained church schools, 38 are voluntary controlled and 19 are voluntary aided.  Of the voluntary aided schools, 13 are Church of England and eight are Catholic. A number of academies are also church schools.

·         There are 13 formal school federations in East Sussex made up of 33 primary schools.

·         According to the Designation of Rural Primary Schools (England) Order 2023, 60 of the 133 primary schools in the county (45%) are classified as rural.

·         The 13 linked infant and junior schools are all located in urban areas, mainly Eastbourne.

·         There are specialist facilities at 19 mainstream schools in East Sussex (nine primary and ten secondary), catering for primary needs such as autism, speech language and communication needs, moderate learning disability and physical disability.

For more information on where schools are located in the county please refer to about schools in East Sussex on the local authority website.        

School organisation in East Sussex

Introduction

This chapter sets out the local authority’s approach to school organisation, to ensure there are sufficient school places to meet demand.

The guiding principles underlying our approach are:

·      To ensure that schools are of the right size and in the right location to meet local demand for places.

·      To ensure that school provision is sustainable and is well placed to deliver a high-quality education that meets the needs of their local communities and makes best use of public funding.

·      To support the amalgamation of linked infant and junior schools that delivers the benefit of continuous provision from early years to the end of Key Stage 2.

·      To ensure any change to school organisation impacts positively on school performance and on the life chances of children and young people.

·      To ensure any review of school organisation enables stakeholders to engage fully and effectively in the process. 

School planning areas

For school planning purposes, East Sussex is split into:

·      18 primary school planning areas which closely reflect school admissions areas.  For the purposes of the plan, rural primary schools, which tend to be single school admission areas, have been grouped together under the headings of ‘Rural Lewes’, ‘Rural Rother’ and ‘Rural Wealden’ or have been linked with a nearby town.

·      16 secondary school planning areas which closely reflect school admissions areas.  Many secondary school admissions areas relate to a single school.  In Eastbourne, where the single school boundaries are complex and overlapping, six secondary schools (including two all-through schools) have been grouped together for school planning purposes.  Three secondary schools make up the Hastings planning area.  There are two secondary schools in the Havens planning area.  The Bexhill planning area contains two schools, one of which (a Catholic school) has a much wider catchment area than the town.

The local authority works closely with local planning authorities in East Sussex on the production of their Local Plan documents.  This planning process identifies the requirement for additional school places arising from new housing development.  It is anticipated that, through the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL) and Section 106 agreements, new housing developments will contribute to the cost of providing additional school places to serve the development and, where necessary, provide land on which to build new schools.

Pupil forecasting

In producing forecasts of future demand for primary and secondary places, we consider factors such as:

·         current numbers on roll in each academic year group

·         births

·         trend data (e.g., on how year group numbers change as cohorts move through schools)

·         parental preference

·         school admissions policies

·         housing growth

·         existing and planned capacity

·         patterns of inward and outward migration.

The forecasts within this document provide a comprehensive account of predicted future trends in numbers and the areas of the county where pressures on places are most likely to occur.  However, pupil forecasting is complex and, as a result, is not an exact science.  For example, it is not always possible to predict changes in local demand for school places owing to swings in parental preference, changing migration patterns or revisions to planned local housing targets. Pupil forecasts are updated annually, and exceptions identified to manage the risk of under/over-supply of school places.

Taking account of the most recent three years of pupil forecasts, East Sussex County Council’s countywide forecasts have achieved the following average levels of accuracy:

·         Primary number on roll one year ahead forecast: 0.4%

·         Primary number on roll three year ahead forecast: 1.2%

·         Secondary number on roll one year ahead forecast: 1.1%

·         Secondary number on roll three year ahead forecast: 2.4%

It is important to note that while the local authority seeks to meet parental preference for school admissions, our projections are primarily concerned with ensuring we have sufficient places in each area.  It may be the case that some schools in an area that are consistently oversubscribed give the impression that there is a shortage of places when this is not the case overall as other schools in that area have capacity.  The principal factor for school planning is the number of places in an area compared to the number of children requiring a place and it is this that the local authority seeks to predict and respond to.

The local authority’s SEND forecasting model predicts future numbers of children with EHCPs and numbers in maintained and independent non-maintained special schools.  The forecasts take account of the following factors:

·         demographic trends

• the prevalence of different types of SEND (as defined by primary need) in the population
• recent trends in prevalence rates (e.g., ECHPs per 10,000 population in a given age bracket)
• professional judgement from SEND practitioners as to whether these trends are likely to continue in the future.

Academies

Under the Academies Act 2010 it is possible for all maintained schools to become academies.  On 1 September 2024, there were 84 academies in East Sussex (45% of all schools).  All new schools that have opened in East Sussex since 2010 have been established as academies in line with government policy.

Of the 84 academies in East Sussex:

·         four are infant schools (57% of the total number of infant schools in East Sussex)

·         one is a junior school (17% of the total number of junior schools in East Sussex)

·         52 are primary schools (35% of the total number of primary schools in East Sussex)

·         three are all-through schools (100% of the total number of all through schools in East Sussex)

·         15 are secondary schools (65% of the total number of secondary schools in East Sussex)

·         14 are special schools and alternative provision (93% of the total number of special schools and alternative provision in East Sussex).

81 academies (96%) are part of a multi academy trust (MAT), with three belonging to a single academy trust (SAT).

At the May 2024 school census, 37,501 (57%) of pupils in East Sussex were on roll in an academy:

·         16,366primary school pupils (46%)

·         4,103all-through school pupils (100%)

·         15,611secondary school pupils (63%)

·         1,304 special school (excluding alternative provision) pupils (90%).

The local authority has a duty to facilitate academy conversions, as set out in the Academies Act 2010, 5b: ‘Where an Academy order under section 4(A1) or (1)(b) has effect in respect of a school, the governing body of the school and the local authority must take all reasonable steps to facilitate the conversion of the school into an Academy.’

Federations

A federation is a formal structure between two or more local authority-maintained schools. A federation has one governing board that is accountable for all schools in the federation. The schools retain their separate legal status. They have their own budget allocations, individual admissions, performance tables and Ofsted inspections.   Federation brings the opportunity to secure strong strategic leadership across schools.

On 1 September 2024 there were 13 formal school federations in East Sussex made up of 33 primary schools. At the May 2024 school census, 4,275 (78%) of pupils in East Sussex maintained schools were on roll in a school that is in a federation.

Creating new places

When the local authority identifies a shortfall of capacity it will consider providing additional school places, either through the expansion of existing schools or through commissioning new schools.  The local authority welcomes proposals from existing schools to expand and from interested parties keen to establish new provision in areas where there is pressure on places.

The local authority will consult with key stakeholders when developing proposals to provide new places.  When considering proposals to add new places to meet demand the local authority will take account of the following principles:

·         prioritise the expansion of good and outstanding schools

·         consider the pattern of parental preference and local demand for places

·         consider the diversity of provision

·         consider transport patterns to reduce travel times to schools wherever possible

·         consider safe routes to schools

·         where there is demand for both school and early years places, the local authority will consider providing additional accommodation designed to ensure a seamless transition between nursery and reception (Year R)

·         support new free schools where their location will help relieve pressure on places

·         where possible, only enlarge schools where it creates or sustains round forms of entry as the preferred model of organisation

·         ensure value for money.

Whilst it would be desirable for every child to be educated in permanent school buildings, the local authority must be certain there is a long term need before we provide additional permanent school places.  This is to ensure we do not add surplus capacity to the system which may then create viability issues in times of low pupil numbers.  If the need is considered short term, the local authority will generally use temporary classrooms which provide a valuable and flexible resource and are an appropriate way of providing school places for a short period of time.

Capital funding

The local authority receives Basic Need capital funding from the government to support the creation of primary and secondary school places.  This funding is provided on a formulaic basis using information provided by the local authority to the Department for Education in the annual School Capacity return.  The local authority also receives High Needs Provision capital funding to support the delivery of new provision for children and young people with SEND.

The capital funding that the local authority receives from the government is insufficient to cover the entire capital costs of new build and expansion projects and the local authority must supplement the funding provided from other sources, including its own capital programme.

In areas where pressure on school places comes from new housing developments, the local authority works closely with local planning authorities to secure financial contributions towards the cost of providing additional school places through the Community Infrastructure Levy (CIL).  The CIL is a charge which can be levied by local planning authorities on new development in their area. It is an important tool for local authorities to use to help them deliver the infrastructure needed to support development in their area. 

In some instances, the local authority can also secure development contributions through the negotiation of Section 106 agreements.  Section 106 agreements are legal agreements between local authorities and developers; these are linked to planning permissions and can also be known as planning obligations.  In recent years, the local authority has been successful in securing funding from Section 106 agreements and the CIL towards the provision of school places.

Surplus places

Schools operate most efficiently and effectively when full or nearly full.  To this end the local authority seeks to keep the number of surplus places (the number of places in schools that are unfilled) to a minimum.  However, it is generally accepted that not all unfilled places in a school are surplus places, but that a small margin of capacity is often allowed to facilitate parental preference, to take account of the fact that schools with available places may not always be in the part of a school planning area where the demand is, and to allow for a degree of error in the forecasts. 

A school is generally considered to be full when it has less than 5% of its places unfilled.  This is in line with the National Audit Office report on Capital Funding for new school places published in 2013, where it states:

“It is considered that on average 5 per cent was the bare minimum needed for authorities to meet their statutory duty with operational flexibility, while enabling parents to have some choice of schools”.

This figure is deemed to give the appropriate amount of flexibility in an area and is set against the need to ensure the efficient use of resources.  In practice, the number of surplus places planned for in an area will also take account of local circumstances.

At the May 2024 school census, 27 primary schools in East Sussex had 25% or more surplus places.  This reflects the falling primary reception (Year R) intake numbers being seen across the county.  Conversely, with secondary Year 7 intake numbers having recently peaked, only three secondary schools had 25% or more surplus places.

Reviews of provision

Low pupil numbers can lead to a school facing financial challenges.  The impact of these financial challenges is often more acute in small rural schools due to the characteristics of rural communities; low birth rates and in-area demand for places which can vary noticeably from one year to another.  Fluctuating pupil numbers are difficult to manage and can lead to irregular class sizes and inefficient staff to pupil ratios.  Smaller schools tend to have a higher proportion of their budget allocated to fixed costs than larger schools and, as such, have less flexibility to respond to cost pressures, unexpected events, and deficit recovery.

In undertaking its statutory duty, the local authority has a responsibility to consider the organisation of school places to create a sustainable network of schools across the county.  In certain circumstances, rationalisation of provision can benefit schools by reducing surplus places in an area so that the remaining schools can operate more efficiently with more certainty over their pupil numbers.

To support this, the local authority regularly monitors pupil numbers in each of its school planning areas to ensure the current arrangement for the organisation of schools is appropriate. 

In addition to the ongoing monitoring process, there may be times when the local authority wishes to conduct a more detailed review of a specific school(s) and/or a specific geographical area.  This review could be conducted where there is significant change in circumstances that could impact on the efficiency and effectiveness of a school(s).  Examples of significant change in circumstances might include:

·         a school receives an inadequate grade for one or more of Ofsted's key judgements (quality of education; behaviour and attitudes; personal development; leadership and management) and for any relevant provision judgement (early years and/or sixth form provision)

·         a school is judged to require special measures or to have serious weaknesses

·         a school becomes eligible for intervention by the local authority

·         a school faces significant financial challenges and is unable to create a viable recovery plan.

Any reviews of education provision the local authority undertakes and any recommendations for school re-organisation will, in part, be based on information contained in this document and in the local authority’s Small Schools Policy where appropriate.  Many schools in East Sussex are church schools, being voluntary controlled or voluntary aided, and therefore, the Diocese of Chichester and the Diocese of Arundel and Brighton would be key partners in any review alongside a school’s governing board.

Academy trusts may wish to consider the information in this document when considering the organisation of school places within their trust.  If any trust is contemplating a change to their current organisation (expansion or reduction in provision) we would encourage them to contact the local authority at the outset to discuss their proposals.  This will ensure that any plans align with the local authority’s wider statutory duty around school places.

The following sections describe the current situation in each school planning area.  They set out how we expect pupil numbers to change during the plan period and what action the local authority is planning to take to address any under or over provision of places, or any organisational change.  The information is subject to revision and review as new data (for example, on live births) becomes available or local planning authorities’ housing targets and trajectories are amended.  We endeavour to communicate clearly with schools and local communities about current and predicted place planning pressures in their area.  In general, we will only name a particular school(s) in the plan when there is certainty that a proposal will be implemented or where this is already underway.

The capacity information provided in the charts in each school planning area is based on either the local authority’s net capacity assessment of each maintained school or, for academies, the capacity figure stated in each academy’s funding agreement. Further information about an individual school’s capacity and pupil numbers can be found in Appendix 1.

 

Eastbourne

Schools

There are 19 primary schools in the area, six of which are infant schools and five are junior schools.  There are two all-through schools (primary and secondary) and four secondary schools.  Five schools have nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in Eastbourne have fallen by 32% since their peak of 1,195 in 2011/12, to 809 in 2022/23.

Eastbourne births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Eastbourne Borough Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 900 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2026/27.  Eastbourne Borough Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in Eastbourne may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

In line with the falling births in Eastbourne, the local authority anticipates that reception (Year R) intakes in the area will generally fall away until the towards the end of the decade.

Many Eastbourne children attend schools in the surrounding area including Polegate Primary School and Willingdon Primary School, Stone Cross School, Hankham Primary School and Pevensey and Westham CE Primary School. The majority of these schools are full or close to full.  High levels of recent and planned new housing will put additional pressure on places at these schools and may result in some demand from Eastbourne children being redirected by the school admissions system back into the area.

Eastbourne primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Falling intakes will have a knock-on effect on total primary numbers on roll in the area. Surplus places, which stood at 7% in 2023/24, are predicted to rise rapidly to around 14% by 2028/29. Currently there are three schools in Eastbourne with surplus places of 25% or more.

 

Eastbourne total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Two of the three schools with significant surplus places are academies.  A decision on managing surplus capacity at either school rests with the relevant academy trust. 

The local authority reduced the PAN at Motcombe Infants School from 120 to 90 with effect from the 2022/23 academic year to help manage surplus places in the school.  Accommodation has not been removed and can be brought back into use if pupil numbers start to rise again.

Secondary places

Based on the numbers coming through primary schools, intakes into Year 7 are forecast to remain high until 2026/27.  From 2027/28, Year 7 numbers in Eastbourne are likely to fall away, leaving increasing numbers of spare places.

The Eastbourne area sees outflows of Catholic children to St Richard’s Catholic College in Bexhill and some inflows from Bexhill and Hailsham.  There are also significant inflows from and outflows to Willingdon Community School.

Eastbourne secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

In line with larger Year 7 intakes, total secondary numbers in the Eastbourne schools have been rising and are expected to peak in 2025/26.

 

Eastbourne total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

 

 

 

 

Hastings

Schools

There are 18 primary schools in the area and three secondary schools.  Of the 18 primary schools, one is an infant school, and one is a junior school.  Nine of the primary schools have nursery provision.  One secondary school has sixth form provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in Hastings have fallen by 33% since their peak of 1,238 in 2010/11, to 831 in 2022/23.

 

Hastings births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Hastings Borough Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  Hastings Borough Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 2,500 new dwellings being built in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

Reception (Year R) intake numbers in Hastings are forecast to remain well below the current Published Admission Number (PAN) for the area until late in the decade.

Many Hastings children attend surrounding primary schools including Battle and Langton CE Primary School, Crowhurst CE Primary School, Guestling Bradshaw CE Primary School, Icklesham CE Primary School, Netherfield CE Primary School, Sedlescombe CE Primary School, and Westfield School.  Most of these have historically been full or close to full.  However, going forward, lower levels of demand from Hastings may see numbers in some of these surrounding schools falling.

 

Hastings Primary Year R Numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Lower intakes are predicted to result in higher numbers of surplus places in the town, which are forecast to rise from their level of 8% in 2023/24 to 14% by 2027/28.

Hastings total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Currently, there are three schools in the town with 25% or more surplus places, all of which are academies. A decision on managing surplus capacity at any of these schools rests with the respective academy trusts.

Secondary places

Linked to higher numbers coming through primary schools, current demand for Year 7 places is high. Year 7 numbers are forecast to be over 800 in 2024/25, with lower intakes forecast for subsequent years.

Significant numbers of Hastings children seek places in surrounding schools such as Bexhill High Academy, St Richard’s Catholic College, Claverham Community College, Rye College, and Robertsbridge Community College.

Hastings secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers are expected to rise slightly during the plan period but will continue to remain below the capacity in the area.

Hastings total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

One school in the area currently has 25% or more surplus places, although it is likely that this will fall below 25% within the plan period.

 

Lewes and surrounding area

Schools

There are five primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  Two of the primary schools have nursery provision.

* School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area have continued to be particularly low in the last ten years.

Lewes births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

The South Downs National Park Authority provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 1,000 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2032/33.  The South Downs National Park Authority is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

Based on birth and GP registration data, we expect reception (Year R) numbers in the area to remain below the Published Admission Number (PAN) for the area until at least 2028/29. However, 2025/26 might be tight.

Some children from Lewes take up places in surrounding rural schools, notably Hamsey Community Primary School.  Iford and Kingston CE Primary School experiences significant inflows of children from Newhaven.

Lewes primary Year R Numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Lower intakes have led to higher numbers of surplus places in the area. In 2023/24, there were 28% surplus places.  The closure of St Pancras Catholic Primary School on 31 August 2024 has seen capacity in the area reduce by 140 places.

Lewes and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

If the 700 new homes planned in the area for the period to 2029/30 are built according to schedule, and this is coupled with a general upswing in births, the reduced capacity in the area may not be sufficient to meet demand in the medium to longer term. If this is the case, the accommodation which remains at Southover CE Primary School and Wallands Community Primary School following their PAN reductions, can be brought back into use to increase capacity.

Secondary places

Part of Priory School’s admissions area is a joint admissions area with that of King’s Academy Ringmer.  

Although the village of Ditchling is in a joint admissions area served by Priory School and Chailey School, it is also in the admissions area of Downlands Community School in Hassocks, West Sussex.  Traditionally, children from the village have attended Downlands, which is their nearest school.

There is routinely significant pupil movement in and out between the Priory School area and notably Kings Academy Ringmer, Chailey School, the Havens area and neighbouring Brighton and Hove. 

Priory School slightly exceeded its PAN of 232 in 2023/24. From 2024/25, numbers of in-area children coming into Year 7 start to fall away significantly. Future intake numbers will continue to depend heavily on demand from out of area, particularly from Brighton and Hove, bridging the gap between the demand from local children and the school’s PAN.

 

Priory School secondary area secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil places at the school are forecast to remain consistent until at least 2027/28.

Lewes and surrounding area total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

The Havens

The Havens area covers both Newhaven and Peacehaven.

Schools

There are four primary schools in Newhaven.  In Peacehaven, there are three primary schools, all with nursery provision.  There are two secondary schools in the Havens area, one in each town.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area have continued to be low since their peak in 2011/12.

Newhaven and Peacehaven births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Lewes District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 1,400 new homes are projected to be built in the Havens area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2029/30.  Lewes District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places in Newhaven

In recent years, reception (Year R) numbers in Newhaven have tended to be close to the Published Admission Number (PAN) for the area. However, owing to fewer children coming into primary schools and higher than usual outflows to Iford and Kingston CE Primary School, we are currently witnessing a downturn in intake numbers. Based on birth and GP registration data, and assuming current preference patterns continue, intake numbers are forecast to stay below the PAN for the next four or five years.

Newhavenprimary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Surplus places for the area stood at 8% in 2023/24 and are forecast to be relatively static over the plan period.

Newhaventotal primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

With 1,400 new homes planned in the area by 2029/30, Year R pressures could resurface in the medium to longer term.

Primary places in Peacehaven

Live birth and GP data indicate that reception (Year R) numbers in Peacehaven are likely to be well below the Published Admission Number (PAN) of 210 for the foreseeable future.

Saltdean Primary School in neighbouring Brighton and Hove is traditionally the school of preference for children who live in East Saltdean which is on the East Sussex side of the border.  Traditionally around 20 to 30 East Sussex children per year group obtain a place at Saltdean Primary School.  Additionally, a few Peacehaven area children normally attend St Margaret’s CE Primary School and Our Lady of Lourdes Catholic Primary School in nearby Rottingdean, both in Brighton and Hove.

Peacehaven primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

In 2023/24, surplus places in Peacehaven stood at 9%.  By 2027/28, this is likely to rise to 18%.

Peacehaventotal primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

The majority of surplus places in the area are within the two academies.  The one maintained school is largely full.  A decision on managing surplus capacity at either of the academies rests with the academy trust.

Secondary places

Seahaven Academy’s school admissions area covers both Newhaven and Peacehaven and includes the priority admissions area of Peacehaven Community School.

There is a net outflow from the area to Seaford Head School and Priory School, in Lewes.  There are also inflows from and outflows to schools in Brighton and Hove.

Both Peacehaven Community School and Seahaven Academy have experienced pressures on Year 7 places in recent years. These now appear to be reducing, with lower intakes expected in the coming years.

 

The Havenssecondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers are expected to fall away slightly by the end of the plan period.

The Havens total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Seaford

Schools

There are four primary schools in the area and one secondary school with a sixth form.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

For further information about individual school capacities and numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Births

Births in Seaford continue to fall. In 2022/23, they were 43% lower than at their peak of 217 in 2012/13. 

Seaford births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

 

Housing plans

Lewes District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 300 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2029/30.  Lewes District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

Based on birth and GP data, reception (Year R) intake numbers in Seaford are predicted to generally fall over the plan period.

Seaford primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

By 2027/28, the overall level of surplus places in the area, at 5% in 2023/24, may be as high as 15%.

Seaford total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

The majority of surplus places in the area are within the two academies.  The two maintained schools are largely full.  A decision on managing surplus capacity in the academies rests with the respective academy trusts.

Secondary places

Seaford Head School took the decision to lower its Published Admission Number (PAN) from 240 to 232 from 2024/25.

Although the school continues to be oversubscribed, it is currently forecast to be able to keep to its new PAN. This will entail the school admissions system redirecting non-priority out of area applicants to nearby Seahaven Academy and Peacehaven Community School.

Seaford Head secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Overall pupil numbers at the school are forecast to reduce slightly over the plan period, reflecting the reduced PAN from 2024/25.

Seaford Head School total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Rural Lewes

Schools

There are nine primary schools and two secondary schools in the area.  Three primary schools have nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

For further information about individual school capacities and numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Births

While births have been largely consistent for a number of years, 2020/21, and to a lesser extent 2022/23, saw higher births in the area.

Rural Lewes births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Lewes District Council and South Downs National Park Authority provide the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 900 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Lewes District Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2029/30, of which approximately 300 are in Ringmer Parish and 200 are in Wivelsfield Parish.  Lewes District Council and the South Downs National Park Authority are currently preparing new Local Plans.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

The 219 reception (Year R) places in primary schools across the area are forecast to be sufficient to meet demand for the foreseeable future.

However, the picture will vary between individual rural areas. Intake numbers in rural schools can fluctuate significantly from year to year, owing to the fact that the size of the cohorts of children living in small geographical areas sometimes differs markedly from one age group to the next. Normally schools can organise to accommodate these fluctuations.

 

Rural Lewes primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers in the area are likely to remain consistent in the period to 2027/28.

Rural Lewes total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 11.

Despite its expansion in 2017/18, Wivelsfield Primary School is already full. Planned new housing at Wivelsfield Green and on the East Sussex / West Sussex Border in Hayward’s Heath and Burgess Hill could place additional pressure on places over the short to medium term.

Ditchling St Margarets CE Primary School exceeded its Published Admission Number (PAN) of 24 in 2024/25. The school took this decision voluntarily to accommodate demand from neighbouring West Sussex.

Secondary places at Chailey School

There is some movement of children between the Chailey School area, and the areas served by Uckfield College and Priory School, in Lewes.

There is also significant movement of children to and from neighbouring West Sussex. Demand from across the border, particularly with the large volume of housing being built in Burgess Hill, should allow Chailey School to generally fill to its PAN in most years. The school is increasing its PAN from 174 to 180 from 2025/26.

Although the village of Ditchling is in a joint admissions area between Chailey School and Priory School, it is also in the admissions area of Downlands Community School in Hassocks, West Sussex. Traditionally children from the village have attended Downlands, which is their nearest school.

 

Chailey School secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers are likely to rise during the plan period as a result of the increase to the schools PAN.

Chailey School total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Secondary places at King’s Academy Ringmer

Part of King’s Academy Ringmer’s admissions area overlaps with that of Priory School in Lewes. There are also partial overlaps with the admissions areas of Seaford Head School, Hailsham Community College and Uckfield College.

The school admits large number of children from the Hailsham area. There are also significant inflows and outflows to and from the Lewes and Uckfield areas.

King’s Academy Ringmer nearly filled to its Published Admission Number (PAN) in 2022/23 and 2023/24. Depending on parental preference patterns in relation to surrounding schools, it could continue to have high intake numbers in the short to medium term. This will partly depend on the school continuing to experience larger inflows from Hailsham.

King’s Academy Ringmer secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Overall pupil numbers at the school are forecast to rise by the end of the plan period, although they will remain below the school’s capacity.

King’s Academy Ringmer total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Bexhill and surrounding area

Schools

There are ten primary schools in the area and two secondary schools.  Two primary schools have nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in Bexhill have remained relatively steady for several years, barring a peak in 2015/16.

Bexhill and surrounding area births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Rother District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 1,500 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2027/28.  Rother District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

Births and GP registration data indicate that the Published Admission Number (PAN) of 425 for the area should not be exceeded in the immediate future.

However, a high volume of new housing is likely to come forward over the next few years, including the remainder of the large development on land north of Pebsham. This, coupled with a general upswing in future births, could result in a shortfall of reception (Year R) places emerging towards the end of the decade.

Some primary schools in the area experience inflows of children from Hastings.  There are also outflows to surrounding schools including Battle and Langton CE Primary School.

Bexhill and surrounding area primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Surplus places in the area stood at 6% in 2023/24 and are forecast to rise to 9% by 2028/29. One school in the area has surplus places of 25% or more.

Bexhill and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

The local authority has an option agreement on land for a new school within the development site north of Pebsham and will bring forward proposals to create provision to serve the development at the appropriate time. The timing of this will be dependent upon when the school site is transferred by the developer to the local authority and the demand for places in the area at that time.

Secondary places

Bexhill High Academy has a PAN of 300. St Richard’s Catholic College has a PAN of 200, giving a combined PAN of 500 for the town. Both schools are forecast to be full to PAN in 2024/25 and again in 2027/28. 

St Richard’s Catholic College takes significant numbers of children from Hastings, Eastbourne, and Willingdon.  Bexhill High Academy takes significant numbers of children from Hastings.  There are also outflows of children from Bexhill to Claverham Community College and Hastings.

Bexhill and surrounding area secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers in the area are forecast to fall away slightly by 2027/28.

Bexhill and surrounding total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Longer term should there be a requirement for additional school places to serve the large volume of new housing planned in the area, the local authority will work with Bexhill High Academy, St Richard’s Catholic College, and the Catholic Diocese to address this.

 

 

 

Battle

Schools

There is one primary school in the area and one secondary school.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area have tended to fluctuate over time but have been particularly low in the last four years.

Battle births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Rother District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 300 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2027/28.  Rother District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

Despite the number of new homes being planned in the period to 2027/28, Battle and Langton CE Primary School is forecast to remain within its Published Admission Number (PAN) of 60 for the foreseeable future.  

The school takes significant numbers of children from Hastings. There are also inflows from Bexhill and the surrounding area. Any future increases in local demand should be able to be offset by the school admission system restricting inflows of children from other areas where necessary.

Battle primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers at Battle and Langton CE Primary School are forecast to remain consistent during the plan period, with little, if any, spare capacity.

Battle total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Secondary places

Claverham Community College takes significant numbers of children from Hastings and Bexhill.  There are outflows of children from Battle to Robertsbridge Community College. The school has sufficient capacity to meet in-area demand.  Provided it continues to be popular with out of area children it is likely to be close to full in most years.

 

Claverham Community College secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers at the school should remain constant during the plan period.

Claverham Community College total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

Rye and surrounding area

Schools

There are four primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  One primary school has nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births have tended to fluctuate from year to year. However, the last three years have seen particularly low births in the area.

Rye and surrounding area births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

 

Housing plans

Rother District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 200 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2027/28.  Rother District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

Lower births coupled with a movement of pupils away from Rye Community Primary School to the surrounding schools have resulted in intakes well below the combined Published Admission Number (PAN) of the four schools, which reduced from 95 to 80 in 2024/25.

Rye and surrounding area primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

In 2023/24, surplus places in the area stood at 34% and could reach 43% by the end of the plan period. Two schools have surplus places of 25% or more.

Rye and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Reflecting the lower demand for places at Rye Community Primary School, the Aquinas Church of England Education Trust has, in recent years, reduced the PAN at the school initially from 60 to 45 and then from 45 to 30 with effect from 2024/25. Accommodation has not been removed and can be brought back into use when pupil numbers start to rise again.

Secondary places

Rye College traditionally has in-area numbers well below its PAN and has relied on attracting children from Hastings and across the border in Kent. Year 7 intakes are expected to remain below the school’s PAN of 150 for the duration of the plan period.

Rye Collegesecondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers at Rye College are forecast to increase slightly during the period to 2026/27 but will still be below the school’s capacity.

 

Rye College total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

Rural Rother

Schools

There are 18 primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  Four primary schools have nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

 

Births

Following a rise in births in 2018/19, numbers in the last four years have fallen back to levels more normally seen in rural Rother.

Rural Rother births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Rother District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  An estimated 500 new homes are projected to be built in the area during the remainder of the existing Local Plan period 2024/25 to 2027/28.  Approximately 200 of these are in Robertsbridge.  Rother District Council is currently preparing a new Local Plan.  As a result, future pupil projections in the area may change, particularly in the period beyond that covered by this plan.

Primary places

The 375 reception (Year R) places in primary schools across the area are forecast to be sufficient to meet demand for the foreseeable future.

However, the picture will vary between individual rural areas. Intake numbers in rural schools can fluctuate significantly from year to year, owing to the fact that the size of the cohorts of children living in small geographical areas sometimes differs markedly from one age group to the next. Normally schools can organise to accommodate any temporary bulges.

The following primary schools all take significant numbers of children from Hastings: Crowhurst CE Primary School, Guestling-Bradshaw CE Primary School, Icklesham CE Primary School, Netherfield CE Primary School, Sedlescombe CE Primary School, and Westfield School.  Falling pupil outflows from Hastings, because of lower numbers there, may result in some of these schools not filling as they normally do.

The Diocese of Chichester Academy Trust (DCAT) approved an increase in Northiam CE Primary School’s Published Admission Number (PAN) from 15 to 20 with effect from the 2024/25 academic year.

Rural Rotherprimary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Surplus places for the area stood at 12% in 2023/24. By 2027/28 they are forecast to rise to 19%. Four schools currently have 25% or more surplus places.

Rural Rothertotal primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Of the four schools with 25% or more surplus places, three are local authority maintained and one is an academy. The local authority will monitor the situation at the three maintained schools and take action where appropriate to manage the surplus capacity. A decision on surplus capacity at the academy school rests with the relevant academy trust.

Secondary places

Robertsbridge Community College has enough places to meet in-area demand. Based on current preference patterns, it is forecast that Year 7 intakes will be full or close to full for most of the plan period, but this to a large extent depends on the school’s continuing popularity with out of area applicants. The school’s PAN increased from 145 to 160 in 2024/25.

 

Robertsbridge Community College secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers at the school should remain consistent until the end of the plan period.

Robertsbridge Community College total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Crowborough and surrounding area

Schools

There are six primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  One primary school has nursery provision.  The secondary school has a sixth form.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Following a particularly low year for births in the area in 2019/20, they have risen in the last three years.

Crowborough and surrounding area births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

 

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 1,200 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

Based on birth and GP registration data, for the foreseeable future, reception (Year R) numbers in the area are likely to fall well below the Published Admission Number (PAN) of 240. 

A number of children from the area currently attend surrounding schools, most notably High Hurstwood CE Primary School.

Crowborough and surrounding area primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Overall pupil numbers in the area are likely to remain consistent until 2027/28.  One school has surplus places of 25% or more.

Crowborough and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

The school with 25% or more surplus places is an academy. A decision on managing surplus capacity at the school therefore rests with the relevant academy trust.

Secondary places

Year 7 intakes have significantly exceeded Beacon Academy’s PAN of 250 in recent years. The school’s admissions policy for 2023/24 changed so priority is only given to siblings of children at the school who live ‘in-area’ rather than all siblings. This is helping to limit the number of out of area applicants the school has to accommodate. Some children from Beacon Academy’s area obtain places at Kent Grammar schools.

Numbers of pupils coming through primary schools in the area over the next few years are likely to be lower than in recent years, although in the short to medium term it may still be difficult for the school to keep to its PAN of 250.

Beacon Academy secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers at the school are forecast to remain consistent during the plan period.

 

Beacon Academy total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Hailsham and surrounding area

Schools

There are seven primary schools in the area and one all through school (primary, secondary and sixth form).  Three schools have nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area have risen in recent years reflecting the significant number of new homes that have been built in Hailsham.

Hailsham and surrounding area births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

 

 

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 4,200 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

Birth and GP registration data indicate that the combined Published Admission Number (PAN) of 345 for the area is unlikely to be exceeded for the foreseeable future.

Hailsham and surrounding area primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

In 2023/24, surplus places in the town stood at 16%.  This figure is likely to fall to 8% by 2027/28. Currently two schools in the area have 25% or more surplus places, although one, Hailsham Community College primary phase, only opened in 2019/20 and is filling from reception year up. The school will not have cohort in each year group until 2025/26.

Hailsham and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

The other school with 25% or more surplus places, Phoenix Academy, is part of a proposal by Step Academy Trust to merge it with Burfield Academy. As the schools are academies, a final decision on the proposal will be taken by the Department for Education. If approved, the merger would create one primary school on the current Phoenix Academy site, with a reduction of capacity in the area by 210 places.

Secondary places

As a result of rising numbers coming through primary schools and additional pupils generated by the substantial volume of new housing being built in the town, Hailsham Community College is experiencing significantly higher numbers of in-area children than previously.

A substantial number of children from the area take up places at surrounding schools, notably Heathfield Community College, Kings Academy Ringmer, Willingdon Community School and schools in Eastbourne.  Therefore, the exact magnitude of Year 7 intakes to Hailsham Community College will be heavily dependent on future patterns of parental preference and the availability of places in surrounding schools.

 

Hailsham Community College Academy Trust secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers are forecast to grow slightly in the period 2027/28 but will remain below the school’s capacity.

 

Hailsham Community College Academy Trust total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

 

 

Heathfield

Schools

There are three primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  One primary school has nursery provision.  The secondary school has a sixth form.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area have been gradually rising in recent years but dropped back again in 2022/23.

Heathfield births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 400 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

There is movement of children between Heathfield and the following schools: Maynard’s Green Community Primary School, Punnetts Town Community Primary School, and schools in Hailsham.

Reception (Year R) numbers in the area are forecast to remain within the Published Admission Number (PAN) of 110 for the foreseeable future.

Heathfieldprimary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Overall pupil numbers should remain consistent until the end of the plan period.  One school in the area has 25% or more surplus places.

Heathfieldtotal primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Secondary places

Heathfield Community College takes significant numbers of pupils from Hailsham and the surrounding area.  With inflows of pupils from these areas, it is forecast that the school will continue to fill to its PAN for the foreseeable future.

Heathfield Community College secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Heathfield Community College has sufficient capacity to meet in-area demand.  The potential for the school admissions system to redirect out of area applicants back to Hailsham and other areas means that the school is unlikely to have to exceed capacity in future years.

Heathfield Community College total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

 

Polegate and Willingdon

Schools

There are two primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  One primary school has nursery provision.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

There has been a gradual decline in births in the area since their peak in 2018/19.

Polegate and Willingdon births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 1,900 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

There are significant flows of children to and from Polegate Primary School and Willingdon Primary School and schools in Eastbourne.

In the short term, birth and GP registration data points to reception (Year R) numbers remaining at or within the combined PAN of 150.

Polegate and Willingdon primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers in the area should remain relatively consistent in the period 2027/28.

 

Polegate and Willingdon total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Secondary places

Linked to numbers coming through primary schools and the volume of recent housing development in the Polegate and Stone Cross areas, Willingdon Community School is likely to find it increasingly difficult to meet demand from all children within its admissions community area who wish to go there. The Willingdon school community area has shared areas with two Eastbourne schools, The Turing School and The Eastbourne Academy. In some years, if Willingdon Community School is to keep to its PAN of 210, the school admissions system may have to direct a number of local applicants from the school’s community area to the above schools.

To address recent pressure on places at the school, the local authority agreed with the school that it would temporarily admit up to 240 children in Year 7 in 2023/24 and again in 2024/25.

 

Willingdon Community School secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

The school is likely to remain at, or close to, capacity during the plan period.

Willingdon Community School total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

Stone Cross, Hankham, Pevensey and Westham

Schools

There are three primary schools in the area.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Births in the area tend to fluctuate year-on-year, although numbers in recent years have been generally higher than in the previous decade.

Stonecross, Hankham, Pevensey and Westham births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 1,200 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

Recent house building in the area has resulted in larger numbers of in-area children coming through into reception (Year R). The three schools take significant numbers of children from Eastbourne area. In the short to medium term, the school admissions system should be able to redirect some of this demand back to Eastbourne, where future intake numbers are predicted to decline as a result of falling births, thereby ensuring sufficient places for local children. 

However, the volume of new housing, coupled with any future general upturn in births, could put pressure on school places in the local area in future years. 

Stonecross, Hankham, Pevensey and Westham primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

The three schools, which have largely been full to now, could start to see pupil numbers below capacity in the period to 2027/28.

Stonecross, Hankham, Pevensey and Westham total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

 

Uckfield and surrounding area

Schools

There are six primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  Three primary schools have nursery provision, and the secondary school has a sixth form.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

Births

Since 2015/16, births in Uckfield have been relatively consistent, although 2019/20 was a particularly low year.

Uckfield and surrounding area births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

 

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 2,200 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40. 

Primary places

A number of children from the area currently attend surrounding schools, notably Bonners CE Primary School and Buxted CE Primary School.

Live birth and GP registration data are currently suggesting reception (Year R) numbers remaining under the Published Admission Number (PAN) for the area during the plan period.

Uckfield and surrounding area primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

The closure of Holy Cross CE Primary School on 31 December 2023 saw capacity in the area reduce by 210 places. As a result, surplus places which had been at 16% in 2022/23, fell to 3% in 2023/24. It is predicted that they will rise again to 7% by 2027/28.

Uckfield and surrounding area total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

In the medium to long term, the development of 1,000 new homes at Ridgewood Farm, Uckfield is likely to generate a significant number of school age children.  The local authority has an option agreement on land for new school provision to serve the development site and will bring forward proposals at the appropriate time.  The timing of this will be dependent upon when the school site is transferred by the developer to the local authority and the demand for places in the area at that time.

Secondary places

Uckfield College traditionally takes children from the Chailey and Ringmer areas.  Conversely, children from Uckfield and the surrounding area access places at King’s Academy, Ringmer as well as St Paul’s Catholic College in West Sussex.

In the coming years, Year 7 intakes will depend on in-area numbers coming through primary schools and the relative popularity of Uckfield College and schools in other areas. It is unlikely that the school’s PAN will need to be exceeded to accommodate in-area demand for places.

Uckfield Community College secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers at the school are forecast to remain consistent during the plan period.

Uckfield Community College total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

Rural Wealden

Schools

There are 24 primary schools in the area and one secondary school.  Four primary schools have nursery provision, and the secondary school has a sixth form.

*School type correct on 1 September 2024

For further information about individual school capacities and numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1.

Births

Births across the area tend to fluctuate year-on-year but have generally been lower in the last six years.

Rural Wealden births from 2011/12 to 2022/23

Source:  ONS live birth data and NHS Digital

Housing plans

Wealden District Council provides the local authority with housing growth data on an annual basis which feeds into our pupil forecasts and means we can make assumptions about the likely pupil yield from new and planned housing developments.  The Council has published a draft new Local Plan.  This projects an estimated 4,400 new dwellings being built in the area in the period 2024/25 to 2039/40.  1,000 of these dwellings are proposed for Horam, 700 for Frant, 700 for East Hoathly with Halland, 300 for Maresfield, 300 for Buxted, and 200 for Herstmonceux.

Primary places

The 480 reception (Year R) places in primary schools across the area are forecast to be sufficient to meet demand for the foreseeable future. However, the picture will vary between individual rural areas. Intake numbers in rural schools can fluctuate significantly from year to year, owing to the fact that the size of the cohorts of children living in small geographical areas sometimes differs markedly from one age group to the next. Normally schools can organise to accommodate any temporary bulges.

Lower numbers coming out of some of the larger towns may mean that some rural schools that have routinely filled to their Published Admission Number (PAN) in the past may not do so in some of the coming years.

Rural Wealden primary Year R numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Overall pupil numbers in the area are forecast to continue to fall in the period to 2027/28.  Six schools have 25% or more surplus places. One, Mayfield CE Primary School, is reducing its PAN from 30 to 20 with effect from 2025/26.

 

Rural Wealden total primary numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

*Note:  For further information about individual school capacities and forecast numbers on roll please refer to Appendix 1

Linked to recent and planned new housing, in-area numbers requiring a school place in the Maynards Green Community Primary School admissions community area in 2026/27 and 2027/28 are forecast to be over 40. If the school is to keep to its PAN of 30, it is likely that the admissions system will have to direct some in-area applicants to surrounding schools, notably in Heathfield. The new homes planned for the local area are likely to lead to shortfalls of places in the longer term.

Frant CE Primary School has a high in-area cohort of children reaching reception age in 2025/26. It is likely that the high numbers are linked to new housing on the Tunbridge Wells fringes, so the additional demand may be met by schools in Kent. However, it is possible that Frant’s PAN of 15 could be exceeded.

The new homes planned for East Hoathly could put pressure on places at East Hoathly CE Primary School in future years.

Secondary places

Uplands Academy has sufficient places to accommodate in-area numbers. The closure of High Weald Academy has resulted in increased in demand from Kent pupils for Uplands Academy since 2022/23.

It is assumed that these higher inflows will continue to some extent, resulting in the school being forecast to be full or close to its PAN in the plan period. As most of this out of area demand is non-priority, it is not expected that the school will need to go over its PAN, unless it chooses to do so voluntarily.

Uplands Academy secondary Year 7 numbers from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

Total pupil numbers are expected to increase slightly over the plan period but will remain below the school’s capacity.

 

Uplands Academy total secondary numbers 2016/17 to 2027/28

Source:  ESCC Pupil Forecasts (January 2024) 03.07.24

 

 

 

Special educational needs and disability (SEND)

Special schools and alternative provision

There are 13 state special schools in East Sussex and two alternative provisions. 

* Correct on 1 September 2024

Nine mainstream primary schools and ten mainstream secondary schools in East Sussex have specialist facilities.

 

Mainstream schools with specialist facilities

You can find more information about each special school and specialist facility on the local authority’s Local Offer page.

Education, Health, and Care Plans

The local authority has a statutory duty to identify, assess and provide for children and young people with special educational needs.  An assessment may lead to the issuing of an Education, Health, and Care Plan (EHCP) for a child.  An EHCP sets out the additional support a child or young person needs and the type of school (mainstream or special) or other provision they will attend in order to meet their needs. 

Children and young people with an EHCP will be recorded under one of the following primary need categories:

 

Primary need classifications

Demand for SEND provision

The overall numbers of children and young people aged 4 to 25 with an EHCP has been rising steeply.  In 2023/24, the number of school aged children (aged 4-18) in East Sussex with an EHCP stood at 3,989. There were also 482 young people aged 19-25 who need continued support to transition to adulthood.  Over the next four years, the local authority forecasts that overall numbers of school aged children with EHCPs will grow, by around 34%, to stand at approximately 5,400.

Overall numbers of school aged children with EHCPs

Source:  ESCC SEND Forecasting Model (July 2024)

 

The number of children and young people identified as autistic is growing year on year and is translating into rapidly increasing numbers of EHCPs issued with a primary need classification of ‘Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD)’. There are no signs of this trend reducing, and autism diagnoses look like being the biggest driver of rising EHCP numbers in the coming years.

The local authority has seen a post Covid upturn in the number of plans being issued with a primary need classification of Speech, Language and Communication Needs (SLCN) and Social Emotional and Mental Health (SEMH).

The number of plans issued for other primary need groups are generally stable or falling.  The following table shows the number of school age children with an EHCP by primary need type.

Key to table:

ASD - Autistic spectrum disorder
HI - Hearing impairment
MLD - Moderate learning difficulties

MSI - Multi-Sensory Impairment
PD - Physical disability
PMLD - Profound and multiple learning difficulties

SLD - Severe learning difficulties
SEMH – Social emotional and mental health
SpLD - Specific learning difficulties
SLCN - Speech, Language & Communication Needs

VI - Visual impairment

 

EHCPs by primary need group (school aged children) from 2016/17 to 2027/28

Need	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/ 23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
ASD	784	827	889	955	1091	1211	1375	1582	1916	2240	2572	2879
HI	50	51	52	57	63	63	61	62	63	61	59	55
MLD	378	376	397	380	388	417	419	426	427	427	437	442
MSI	6	6	6	4	4	5	3	3	3	3	3	3
PD	175	181	184	178	170	165	157	163	162	155	154	158
PMLD	70	80	86	96	105	102	104	104	105	104	104	95
SLD	127	121	117	101	91	93	92	82	76	63	62	58
SEMH	471	527	582	587	600	648	682	709	744	746	738	731
SEMH	183	180	160	144	128	115	119	132	141	147	153	158
SLCN	640	646	627	642	633	653	680	706	729	747	760	767
VI	25	27	26	26	24	22	21	20	20	18	16	15
Total	2909	3022	3126	3170	3297	3494	3713	3989	4385	4713	5059	5360

Source:  ESCC SEND Forecasting Model (July 2024)

In 2023/24, there were 1,873 East Sussex resident children and young people on roll in special schools. 1,645 were in schools in East Sussex and 228 were in schools in other authorities. 1,453 were in maintained and academy provision and 420 were in non-maintained independent special schools. A further 233 East Sussex resident children and young people were in specialist facilities in mainstream schools.

The table below shows that since 2020/21, the biggest need has been for places in maintained special schools and academies followed by funded places in mainstream schools.

 

Key to table:

Band A: Mainstream School and Further Education Colleges (with a Non-Funded Plan)

Band B: Mainstream School and Further Education Colleges (with a Funded Plan)

Band C: Mainstream School Units and Special Facilities

Band D: Maintained Special Schools and Special Academies

Band E: Non-Maintained and Independent Special Schools

EHCPs by Type of Provision Needed

Need	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21	2021/22	2022/ 23	2023/24	2024/25	2025/26	2026/27	2027/28
Band A	294	226	171	248	532	505	468	472	515	550	589	619
Band B	1246	1373	1435	1323	1051	1108	1230	1327	1465	1581	1704	1816
Band C	160	170	179	187	206	204	211	230	254	276	297	318
Band D	985	1039	1100	1139	1186	1298	1371	1488	1633	1753	1877	1983
Band E	224	214	241	273	322	379	433	472	517	554	591	624
Total	2909	3022	3126	3170	3297	3494	3713	3989	4385	4713	5059	5360

Source:  ESCC SEND Forecasting Model (July 2024)

The numbers assessed as requiring a special school place have risen by approximately 550 (39%) over the past four years.  The number assessed as requiring maintained/ academy special school places has risen by approximately 350 (31%). The number of pupils requiring non-maintained independent special school places has risen by approximately 200, a 73% increase.

The following table compares the combined capacity of places in special schools and specialist facilities in mainstream schools with the current and forecast need for such places. The local authority does not have data on places in independent special schools. In reality, most of the current shortfall in places shown in the table is being met by independent special school placements.

Need for Special School Places from 2022/23 to 2027/28

	Capacity of places 2023/24*	Need 2022/23	Need 2023/24	Need 2024/25	Need 2025/26	Need 2026/27	Need 2027/28
Number of EHCP Plans	1843	2015	2190	2405	2583	2766	2925

Source:  ESCC SEND Forecasting Model (July 2024)

*Capacity totals exclude places in Independent Special Schools

The local authority has to use high cost independent and non-maintained special school provision to meet need for specialist placements.  This is because there is insufficient capacity in state run provision. If current placement trends continue over the period to 2027/28, the effective shortfall in state run specialist provision is forecast to increase by over 700 places. 

Figures for 2023/24 show that 2.2% of all pupils in state-funded schools in East Sussex are in special schools.  This compares to the national average for England of 1.9%. (Schools, Pupils and Their Characteristics, Department for Education, 2024).

SEND place planning strategy

In recent years, the local authority has taken action to address the increasing demand for special school and specialist facility places and manage the high cost of placements in non-maintained independent schools.  381 new special school and alternative provision places have opened in the county in four establishments. We have created 72 new specialist facility places at seven mainstream schools (five primary and two secondary).  Two mainstream schools have extended the designation of their existing specialist facilities. This is to reflect the growing demand for provision for children with autism.

We are continuing our strategy of increasing the number of places available in special schools and specialist facilities. This is alongside developing inclusion in mainstream schools. This includes a proposed project to reorganise and expand Grove Park School to increase capacity. We plan to create extra specialist facility places through new and expanded facilities in primary and secondary schools. We are currently seeking expressions of interest from schools for this.

We have also identified a need for more specialist provision for post-16 learners. We are working with special schools, FE Colleges and other post-16 providers to explore how to deliver this.